Selling The Drama: How to Win in Philippine Elections

There is a clear difference between the debate as to who deserves to win on the basis of credentials (i.e. what a candidate has done in the past) and who deserves to win on the basis of a solid campaign strategy (i.e. how he sold himself). I have already made it very very clear that Gibo is the best choice while Noynoy has already been proclaimed as the 15th President of our Republic.

As such, I'd like to provide my unsolicited analysis on how and why Noynoy won and why Erap, Villar, and Gibo lost. Let's start off with an analysis of the Target Market of the Presidential Candidates.

Target Market: Filipino electorate

Behavior:
1. Generally instinctive not too keen on the details/platform. Satisfied in general/generic ideas.
2. Majority hates the current administration led by President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo from the dominant political party: Lakas-Kampi CMD.
3. Decision is largely affected by personal and/or emotional attachment to the candidate.
4. Decision is largely affected by popularity and/or winnability.
5. Media blitz and glamor can sway the electorate.

Given the behavior of the target market, which is the Filipino electorate, then let us quickly analyze the campaign strategies of the four major presidential contenders.

Noynoy Aquino - 5 STARS

Noynoy is considered as a late comer, having only decided to run at around September/October 2009. However, his being a late comer should be seen in the light of him being the son of Cory and Ninoy and the brother of Kris Aquino. By looking at this angle, one can immediately see that he is not an unknown candidate unlike other late comers. Moreover, he ran and won a senate seat in 2007, which means that he has already campaigned in a nationwide scope placing him at least at par with his closest rivals.

The Cory Magic definitely worked. When Former President Cory Aquino passed away in 2009, Noynoy's political capital surged and his popularity rating went over the top. As such, it was very wise to use this to jump start his campaign. Noynoy's political ads in late 2009 to early 2010 were all about him being the son of Ninoy and Cory. These ads called on people to relive the spirit of EDSA 1986 by projecting that we are at the exact same state now as we were in 1986. Noynoy's initial campaign message was that the incumbent President Gloria Arroyo is Marcos and Noynoy represents the change that his mother, Cory, symbolized in 1986. Given the reality of the target market, this was a very effective message since this touched a sensitive/emotional chord within the Filipino people. EDSA 1986 remains to be one of our proudest moments as a people and reliving its spirit will always get a nod of approval from the majority of our people.

Noynoy was able to maximize the effects of Cory's passing and the spirit of EDSA. Using this message, his ratings went up to as high as 60%.

However, by February, right before the start of the campaign season, Noynoy's rating plummeted while that of Villar rose. Noynoy's strategists, veterans as they were, I believe, expected that at a certain point in time, The effect of the Cory/Ninoy Magic would have already been maximized and hence diminish and there should be an automatic transition to focus on a goal.

At this stage of the game, Noynoy's drop in ratings was due to an effort of his opponents to question him as a man in his own right, his platform and his accomplishments and not as the son of Filipino legends. As such, to deflect this attack, his campaign strategy shifted to focus on a goal and put the "son of cory" strategy a bit outside the limelight (take note: just a bit outside the limelight). Unlike other candidates, however, his goal was simple, straight and bereft of any sophisticaated details. His goal was as general and generic as it can be, some actually consider this a motherhood statement, but the point is: it worked. The message of ending corruption is a box office hit and people bought it like pancakes.

I will attribute the effectiveness of Noynoy's "anti-corruption" to 3 underlying action plans of his campaign.

1. Continue bombarding the public that GMA's supposedly corrupt regime has brought us nowhere and must end now.
2. Attack and attack and attack Villar through the C5 extension project and other supposed corrupt practices
3. Give corruption a face, it is not enough to only put GMA's face. Hence, they successfully combined GMA and Villar to create the VILLARROYO: the face of everything that is wrong with our country.

As such the initial stance was to promote Noynoy as the son of Cory and Ninoy, hence people will get a certain emotional/historical attachment with him. The Noynoy camp was able to do this flawlessly.

The second stage was attack, attack, attack Villar and GMA using corruption as the general message. This was not just simple, it was actually very elementary. Noynoy's campaign's lack of sophistication in message creation was actually its greatest strength. As such, by March to April 2010, he was ahead by miles.

The simplicity of Noynoy's message allowed him to deliver it clearly. More than this, the overarching / catch all "anti-corruption" message permitted his loose alliance with so many sectors of the society to remain intact since, nobody actually would tell you that being anti-corruption would not benefit their group and will therefore remove themselves from the yellow coalition. Lastly, the simplicity of Noynoy's message allowed them to execute it perfectly, in near flawless form.

Lastly, whether they admit it or not, Noynoy was the media's baby. I'll stop short of accusing the media of being bias but I believe that the media practitioners are persons too and in one way or another, some of their personal beliefs leaked into the way they reported and delivered news to the public.

In all, looking back at who the target market was, it's a straight 5 stars for Noynoy's campaign.

ERAP - 2.5 STARS

Erap, same as Noynoy, did not provide any details in his strategy. His was also a short and simple message (a sort of reprise of "Erap Para sa Mahirap" slogan in 1998) he used "Basta may Erap, may ginhawa." And basically, he just repeated that line over and over and over again during the whole 90 days. Again, unsophisticated, elementary, general, motherhood - Filipinos love that!

Second, Erap is also seen as anti-GMA. Although pardoned by GMA, he never wavered in being anti-Gloria. He kept on yarping about how he is better than GMA. He also argued that GMA must pay for her crimes, as Noynoy also did. Hence, Filipinos love him for this.

Erap's biggest weakness, however, is him already being a former president, womanizer, drunkard, ousted leader and convicted plunderer. Hence, there is a valid reason to hate the guy. As such, the Filipino emotion is quite divided on whether to treat him as a victim of Gloria's lust for power or a corrupt leader that was rightfully put in his proper place. There is an argument that he was already tried and he failed. Hence, this weakness pulls down the headway he gained from delivering a simple message and being anti-Gloria.

Further slowing down his momentum is his winnability. As discussed above, Filipinos only vote for winnable candidates. From November 2009 to March 2010, he was always ranked as a far third, hence voters set him aside. By April, however, he jumped to the second place and this gained him more voters. Obviously, this was not enough for him to overtake Noynoy.

He also lacked media blitz and showbiz support. Unlike in his 1998 campaign, Erap was more austere in his campaign and obviously did not enjoy the full backing of the showbiz world. As such, inspite having the correct message and stance on GMA, he falls behind Noynoy in the area of emotional attachment, winnability, and media blitz.

Hence, I believe it's a 2.5 to 3 stars/checks for Erap.


MANNY VILLAR: 1 STAR

Manny Villar started off very strong having prepared for his presidential run, I believe, as soon as he got elected to his second term in the senate back in 2007. He had laid out everything: his coalition, message and delivery. However, he did not prepare for one thing: Cory's death.

Villar's message, like Noynoy, is simple and straight: end poverty. However, he did not stop at the general tone of his message. Many of his ads pointed out his achievements throughout the years. Villar's ads told us how many trees he planted, how many OFWs he helped, how many jobs he created. This could have been somewhat effective but the electorate wanted a simple message. Villar, inspite or despite of the end poverty campaign, was still all over the place.

If you would remember, his most effective ad was not the one when he kept repeating everything he's done in the past. His most effective ad was the one where a group of kids sang a song about ending poverty. See... it was all about sticking to one general/generic/motherhood goal.

The problem with Villar's campaign strategy was that when Noynoy seemed to be surging, the more he used his achievements (e.g. I planted all these trees, I provided these scholarship grants, I made all these and all that before) and the less he utilized his simple/generic campaign of ending poverty. And hence, he was basically attacking all fronts when what was needed to be done was to stick to his "TAPUSIN ANG KAHIRAPAN" theme.

He also failed to exploit one of Noynoy's weaknesses: his alleged incompetence. Noynoy never shirked from attacking Villar and at around March to April, his anti-villar tact was all out. By April, Noynoy has successfully painted Villar as the evil and corrupt man that people should hate or at least be afraid of. Villar, on the other hand, save for the psychiatric reports, whose effect, I believed could have been maximized had it been delivered to the public differently, failed to really attack Noynoy. Villar should have, at least, tried to paint incompetence as the greater evil than any other evil. I am not sure if it would work but he should have tried that angle. Similar to when Hillary, in 2008, used White House's red phone to point out that she is better equipped to lead (or answer that "emergency" phone) than Obama. It may yield the same result but it was worth the try.

There are many things you can say about Manny Villar and but you CAN'T say that he was media's baby. Correctly or not, Villar was "killed" by the media. The point is bad news sell! and Villar's C5 and PSE controversies are bad news and hence, they sell! So eventhough he had all the money to buy all the airtime, the moment the show returns to its regular programming (particularly during news time) it was all anti-Manny V. The Filipino emotion, hence, slowly but surely turned away from Manny V.

And yes, one more thing, he had a softer stance against GMA, not as soft as Gibo but way softer as compared to "I'll Kill Her" stance of Noynoy. As such, Villar's ratings plummeted and a week before elections he even fell to the third place in most surveys.

Manny V. started off strong but he was disoriented when Noynoy came into the picture. He had no Plan Noynoy since all he had was Plan Mar. As such, he had to scramble to arrange a new battleplan, which I believe was just a rehash of his plan vs. Mar, which could have been effective if he were running against Mar.

Hence, his simple slogan was diluted by his detailed messages, his anti-gma stance was seen as little bit softer than what the public wants, his winnability faded by April, a media target, the face of corruption. This led him to make the wrong moves that led to his ultimate defeat.

Look back at the behavior of the Filipino electorate and you'll clearly see why he lost. He started with strong potential but he lost steam by mid-campaign season and ultimately lost all his strength by crunch time. Overall, I'll only give him one star.

GIBO: ZERO STARS

I believe the explanation as to why Gibo lost is simple: He did not do anything to win the vote of the Filipino electorate.

Many hate GMA. He is GMA's candidate.

He is hated because he is Lakas-Kampi's standard bearer. Yet, he didn't even bother maintaining/preserving the unity of Lakas-Kampi.

While Filipinos love generic goals, his message was a detailed platform of governance. He failed to see the reality that Filipinos during election season do not care about: Agro-entrepreneurship, Foreign investments, Infrastructure, Economic Policies/Credit Ratings.

Media. He did not spend enough.

Winnability. Always fourth on surveys.

Emotions? Well he did inspire many to volunteer for him but these people probably at the maximum only represents 10% of the electorate.

There is only one thing that I hope Gibo did. He probably would still have lost but if I were in his inner circle I would have told him to release an ad repeatedly saying that Gibo is new politics, Gibo doesn't meddle in useless politicking, Gibo focuses on issues, Gibo is new politics, Gibo provides solutions not shallow complaints. I hope he did that and I think he probably got a few more votes than he actually did.

If you want to analyze why Gordon lost, take a look at the 5 characteristics of Filipino voters and I believe it would be clear to you that Gordon did nothing to get their votes. For me, Gordon like Gibo, garnered zero stars.

The only reason Villanueva got a million is because he has his own religious movement.

And so let this be a lesson to all those who plan to run for an elective position in the future: In Philippine Elections, it doesn't matter what you did in the past, it doesn't matter what your ideology is, it doesn't matter how you plan to move this country forward, what matters is how you SELL THE DRAMA.